14/03/2024
Global Investment View
Global Investment Views - March 2024
Global Investment Views - April 2024
Saturday 13 April 2024
Global Investment View
The late-cycle environment continues to play out
A resilient US economy (owing to consumption and wealth effects) and strong earnings expectations for the year are driving the recent upside in equities and increase in yields. Now, the big questions are whether this can continue given the already strong market movements, and whether these earnings expectations are credible?
On the economic front, the past strength led us to forecast a less ugly US slowdown, therefore extending the late-cycle environment. Nonetheless, we do not see this as a beginning of a new cycle, and expect a slowdown around the middle of the year, and continued disinflation.
