Credibility under scrutiny

A summer cocktail of earnings data, geopolitical headlines, and “policy events” has prompted investors to increasingly scrutinise equity and bond markets.

 

On the one hand, equities have held up, even advanced, on the back of a strong earnings season, which has so far supported the credibility of the AI trade. On the other hand, bond yields have risen globally to levels not seen in decades, largely due to uncertainty surrounding major central banks’ policy paths amid fears of sticky inflation, as well as rising concerns regarding funding needs and fiscal discipline. 

 

In the US, 30-year Treasury yields reached their highest level in almost two decades, resulting in the Treasury’s announcement of a double buyback programme. This action, together with the joint US Treasury–BoJ intervention in the yen, has reinvigorated the debasement trade, pushing the US dollar lower against other major currencies and highlighting the role of gold as a store of value.

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Monica Defend

Monica Defend

Head of Amundi Investment Institute & Chief Strategist

Diversification and selectivity are key in an environment of higher scrutiny of policymakers’ credibility and of the AI ecosystem, including its links to credit markets and off-balance-sheet positions.

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute & Chief Strategist

Bond yields on the rise

investment

Bond yields on the rise

Global growth remains resilient but uneven, with policy divergence and geopolitical tensions creating an increasingly fragmented macro environment. Oil price volatility over the summer, driven largely by geopolitical developments, has renewed uncertainty around the inflation trajectory and, by extension, the path of monetary policy. These factors, together with funding needs and a lack of fiscal discipline, have created tensions in longer dated bond markets globally. 

Even so, this does not materially change our view. We confirm our more dovish outlook for the Fed, expecting it to remain on hold through year-end, and for the ECB, where we continue to expect  only one further hike.  As pressure at the long end is likely to remain, this supports our conviction in curve steepening across the curves, except for Japan. 
 

Positioning for growth amid dispersion

Equity markets edged higher, led by Europe and emerging markets. Earnings growth remains solid on both sides of the Atlantic. The earnings season highlighted wide single-stock dispersion, with investors rewarding growth and punishing misses. It has also delivered strong upgrades. As a result, earnings revisions have risen to levels usually seen during recovery phases. Also in EM, earnings remain robust. 
We continue to diversify away from the U.S. to reduce concentration and valuation risks. Europe looks attractive on earnings growth and the drive toward strategic autonomy. In Japan, we are finding opportunities given robust profitability, share buybacks, pro-growth policies and notable governance reforms. We remain constructive on EM, while noting the importance of AI capex momentum for equity indices. 


 


 

Positioning for growth amid dispersion

stacking coins

Mildly pro-risk, with selectivity

GIV MAY EM

Mildly pro-risk, with selectivity

The broader economic environment remains moderately constructive, as growth has so far proven resilient, particularly in Europe, and inflation has given some signs of easing. As markets continue to be sensitive to any signs of renewed geopolitical or inflationary pressure, we confirm a pro-risk positioning, but with a clear preference for carry, selectivity and regional diversification. 

 

Changes vs previous month

  • Multi asset: In commodities, we have increased our exposure to gold, reflecting the supportive backdrop from central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty and debt sustainability concerns.  

  • Fixed income: In credit, we have slightly reduced our position in EUR IG.

  • Equities: We are more constructive on Japan, where we are finding opportunities given reasonable valuations, robust profitability, share buybacks, pro-growth policies and notable governance reforms. Latin America offers opportunities to diversify beyond tech. 

2026-09-16

Global Investment Views - September 2026

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