A summer of calm on surface, turbulent currents beneath

US equities touched new highs in August and European markets traded close to their March levels, while corporate credit spreads compressed over the summer. Sentiment was led by expectations for AI capital expenditure, a strong US earnings season, and a relatively dovish Fed at Jackson Hole. Markets seems to be ignoring the risks around economic activity (e.g., labour markets), political pressure on the Fed, fiscal deficits, and corporate margins.

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Monica Defend

Monica Defend

Head of Amundi Investment Institute

A higher risk premium on US assets (dollar, Treasuries) will have implications for portfolio construction, given their traditional role in asset allocation

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute

Curve steepening amid deficit concerns

investment

Curve steepening amid deficit concerns

Higher US inflation expectations in the short term, fiscal spending plans in the US and EU (ie, higher bond supply), and continued monetary easing are the main themes we will focus on in the medium term. Collectively, this has led yields in the US, Europe, the UK, and Japan to rise, particularly on the long end of the curve. Additionally, reforms to the pension system in some countries in Europe would further push long term yields upwards.

In the UK, we have our eyes on inflation and the government budget (in November) and whether it can reassure the markets that funding will not be an issue. On the other hand, corporate spreads are tight but we see selective value and attractive carry for instance in European high-quality.

 



 

 

Diversify in times of concentration risks

Despite the ongoing geopolitical noise and policy uncertainty, global equity markets continued to climb higher. AI sectors are supporting markets, while hard data is, as yet, showing no signs of impact from tariffs. Corporate earnings were better than expected in the US, but concentration risks are rising. Hence, we favour a continuation of a shift away from the US market towards Europe and Japan.

We believe Europe is better-positioned to mitigate some tariff-related impacts through fiscal and monetary policies. It should also benefit from reforms aimed at enhancing competitiveness at EU level and declining energy costs. Across markets, we expect volatility to persist, and aim to capitalise on any share price weakness among quality stocks. Overall, our preference for balance sheet strength and idiosyncratic risk is retained.

 


 

Diversify in times of concentration risks

stacking coins

EM idiosyncratic stories make a comeback

GIV MAY EM

EM idiosyncratic stories make a comeback

Global emerging markets are displaying a return of country-specific factors – some improvements observed in the economic environment in China (external pressures have abated but domestic demand still weak) and India, whereas politics is coming back in focus in Brazil and Indonesia. However, volatility on the trade front still remains a factor across EM. In countries such as India, internal tax reforms bode well for domestic consumption, which is a mainstay of growth.

Overall, in light of a dovish Fed, global investors should benefit from better growth in EM and positive earnings momentum that will allow them to diversify away from the US. That said, we are monitoring geopolitical risks and developments on the trade front.
 

Pro-risk stance with a rotation to EM

Over the summer, we did not see any extreme macro data coming out of the US or Europe, leading the markets to stay relatively calm. We did, however, note a deterioration in US labour markets even as higher US tariffs were confirmed. Both these should pressure consumption – we affirm our stance of a decelerating growth in US. Monetary policy, on the other hand, looks likely to be accommodative in the EU as well as US. Hence, we are slightly optimistic on risk assets, including EM, and see a need for safeguards in the form of gold (geopolitical risks, fiscal deterioration) and equity hedges.

Pro-risk stance with a rotation to EM

GIV May Multi asset

Changes vs previous month

  • Fixed income: Our stance on EU IG has moderated a bit, but we are still positive.

  • Multi asset: In equities, we are more positive on emerging markets and tactically neutral on Europe.

  • FX: Neutral on the USD tactically and near term cautious on the EUR, following the recent strength in the regional currency. On the dollar, we see a scope for some consolidation now, despite expectations of weakness over the medium term.

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