Keep it turning, faster

Since the start of the year, several of the key convictions we highlighted in our outlook have been playing out, and some trends have clearly accelerated. Markets have remained well supported, with significant rotations at country, sector and stock levels.

Geopolitical fragmentation and controlled disorder remain central themes, as the recent escalation in the Middle East has shown. The situation remains fluid and, for now, is best characterised as a military shock with uncertain political ramifications. Oil prices — the principal macro transmission channel — already appear to reflect a largely temporary geopolitical risk premium.

At Davos, we heard a narrative shift, a clear break in the international order. At the Munich Security Conference, and more recently in markets, we have seen steps towards policy action. President Lagarde’s reference in her speech to the ECB’s new repo facility signifies how policymakers view the growing importance of geo‑economics.

Clearly, we are moving into a more complex market equilibrium in which policy, geopolitics and capital allocation matter as much as the economic cycle. 

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Monica Defend

Monica Defend

Head of Amundi Investment Institute

ECB President Lagarde’s announcement of a new euro liquidity facility at the Munich Security Conference indicates the growing connection between policy making and geoeconomics.

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute

Rates to remain range bound

investment

Rates to remain range bound

We believe that, while disinflation will continue in the US, the overall inflation will remain between 2.5% and 3% this year, which is above the Fed target. Hence, in the very near future the Fed is likely to remain on hold. Around mid-year, when there is more visibility on inflation, the Fed may reduce rates.

At the same time, we don’t see Fed pivoting towards a rate hike, because labour markets are not giving any clear indication of improvement. Overall, rates will remain range-bound. In Asia, Japan is an outlier, and we are monitoring how the fiscal/monetary policies evolve. Overall, we stay balanced, with slightly positive views on corporate credit, EM bonds and a selective stance on duration across DM.


 



 



 

 

AI disruption may support rotation

The global macro environment is decent, but tariffs have again created uncertainty in this world of controlled disorder. On the market front, volatility in equity markets, including in AI segments, is a reminder of the bona fide questions the market will ask about these companies' competitive moats and their earnings potential. Any progress on this – for example, the development of a new AI model – could result in increased volatility for companies whose business models are at risk of disruption.

We could witness a general trend favouring high-quality companies in industrials versus losers in the technology segments. Our focus remains on building a fundamental view on businesses that could sustain this rotation, and may even benefit from it, particularly in Europe, Japan and EM.


 

AI disruption may support rotation

stacking coins

Explore the carry potential in EM

GIV MAY EM

Explore the carry potential in EM

The growth momentum is stronger than expected in the US and Europe, with irregular progress towards the inflation target that could lead the Fed and ECB to stay on hold in the near term. In Japan, PM Sanae Takaichi’s victory gives an additional push to her “Sanaenomics” agenda that could revamp Japan’s growth potential. Elsewhere, EM show improving financial conditions that could improve their economic pattern. In this context, we have recalibrated our stance to explore carry in EM, maintaining a modestly pro-risk stance.

Changes vs previous month

  • Fixed income: downgraded US duration.

  • Multi-asset: Constructive on EM bonds and Japanese equities, and tactically neutral on US stocks.

2026-03-16

Global Investment Views - March 2026

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