Market Views

Market Commentary

asia-pacific-market-commentary

Amundi Asia Pacific Market Monthly Commentary - June 2017

Steady fund inflows and rising earnings growth expectations underpinned Asia ex Japan region’s equity market strength in June. The MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index appreciated 1.59% (in USD terms, dividend included) last month. In terms of material corporate developments and news flow, India finalized the rollout of its GST program and receding geopolitical noise in Korea on the back of delays to further deployment of additional THAAD units. Meanwhile, chatter of the potential passage of Chaebol reforms could serve as additional tailwind for Korean equities. US Federal Reserve’s third rate hike within six months, weaker oil prices, and China’s A share inclusion to the MSCI indices were also some key events to have transpired over the month.

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asia-pacific-market-commentary

Amundi Asia Pacific Market Monthly Commentary - May 2017

Asia ex-Japan equities had a positive month in May while the old adage of "sell in May and go away" seems not apply on this occasion. The MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index appreciated 4.35% (in USD terms, dividend included) last month. Despite weakness in the onshore A share equity market, steps by HK regulator imposed lending measures in property market and Moody’s downgraded sovereign credit rating China and Hong Kong, board market in regions responded positively. Selected ASEAN economies (Thailand and Malaysia) were reporting better-than-expected 1Q17 GDP growth prints. S&P, in a surprise move, upgraded Indonesia’s sovereign debt rating to BBB- (Investment Grade).

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asia-pacific-market-commentary

Amundi Asia Pacific Market Monthly Commentary - April 2017

Asia ex-Japan equities continued the rallies in April. Fund inflows into the region were firm amid a weak USD backdrop while earnings upgrades were also on an uptrend, on the back of a flying start to the first quarter of 2017 reporting season. Improving return on earning fundamentals in the region is another factor underpinning the upside. Technology and Consumer Discretionary stocks outperformed while Materials and Utilities lagged. MSCI AC Asia ex Japan index rose 2.18% (in USD terms, dividend included) in April.

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Expert Talk

Mo JI, Chief Economist, Asia ex-Japan

Expert Talk , 21 June 2017

INCLUSION OF A-SHARE IN MSCI

MSCI will include 222 Chinese A-share large cap stocks on a gradual basis beginning in June 2018. Given 5% inclusion factor, Chinese Ashare weighting in MSCI Emerging Market (EM) Index will be 0.73%. Amundi believes the move is symbolic with long term market impact and inflow.

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Tristan PERRIER, Developed Countries Economist

Expert Talk, 9 June 2017

A KEY STEP AHEAD OF BREXIT

While it’s not Amundi’s central scenario, a setback for the Conservatives could alter the conditions in which Brexit will unfold. Whatever happens, difficult negotiations are to be expected, as are temporary episodes of market stress over the prospect of an exit by the UK without an agreement with the EU.

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Philippe Ithurbide Fond Uni

Expert Talk, 8 May 2017

French Presidential Election - Macron President: risks disappear ... back to fundamentals

The second round of the presidential election provided the name of the winner: E. Macron is the next president of the French Republic (66% of the votes).

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2017-03-French election urn

Expert Talk, 24 April 2017

French Presidential Elections - the Aftermath of the First Round

The first round finally delivered its verdict: Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) arrived in the lead with 23.9% of the votes, ahead Marine Le Pen (Front National) with 21.4%.

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Mo JI, Chief Economist, Asia ex-Japan

Expert Talk, 29 March 2017

A NOTE BEFORE XI MEETS TRUMP

Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet U.S President Donald Trump in Florida next week. It will be their first meeting since Trump took the

office in January. Amundi believes the meeting can only bring two countries closer and the relationship between US and China would be

cooperative rather than a trade war.

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2017-03-French election urn

Expert Talk , 23 March 2017

French Presidential Election - The candidates and budgetary / fiscal policies: what is at stake

This note discussing the budgetary policies of the five main candidates running for French president is the fourth in a series that will accompany you until the results of the presidential and legislative elections (and probably a little further).

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2017-03-French election urn

Expert talk, 9 March 2017

French Presidential Election French economy recovery: where are we?

This note is the second in a series that will accompany you until the results of the presidential and legislative elections (and probably a little further). Here we focus on an assessment of the French economy.

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2017-03-French election urn

Expert talk, 1st March 2017

French Presidential Election Taking stock of the situation and decrypting current issues

This note is the first in a series that will accompany you until the results of the presidential and legislative elections (and probably a little further). Here we set the scene before proposing specific thematic topics.

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Mo JI, Chief Economist, Asia ex-Japan

Expert talk, 10 February 2017

5 UNDER-ESTIMATED POSITIVE SURPRISES FROM CHINA

We have observed five positive surprises coming from China. Investors should not miss these signs as they are not yet priced in or very
much underestimated. Noteworthy, these signs included global commodity demand increase resulted by overcapacity reduction and further environment deterioration in China, along with private capex growth in China are much stronger than market expected with momentum.

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Tristan PERRIER, Developed Countries Economist

Expert Talk, 25 January 2017

Hard Brexit and soft power

After six months of calculated discretion, Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May went public with major indications regarding her government's strategy on Brexit and the United Kingdom's future economic relations with the EU. She warned Europeans against any desire to “punish the UK”, asserting no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain,” and that the UK could, in such a case, leverage its taxation and regulation levels to improve its competitiveness.

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Mo JI, Chief Economist, Asia ex-Japan

Expert talk, 20 December 2016

9 THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT CHINA IN 2017

We have reviewed several questions about China for 2017, and we think Chinese PPI, private investment will peak later than market expected and remain positive is more important than judging when it will peak; property investment will also peak later than market expected, and the drag on the overall economy is limited; Chinese monetary policy will not be tighter but rather much more aggressive in 2017. We believe the domestic Chinese equity market will recover in 2017.

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Italian Referendum

Expert Talk - 5 December 2016

Italian Referendum: The ‘No’ won : what to expect now?

On Sunday, the proposed reform of Italy’s constitution was rejected by a large majority of the population: 19.38 million electors (59.2%) voted No while 13.37 million (40.8%) voted Yes to reform the Senate. This is a very large victory for the “No Camp”. It is all the more true that the voter turnout was very significant by historical standards (68%). This result is a humiliation for PM Matteo Renzi who immediately announced that he will resign today.

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