Market Views

Market Commentary

asia-pacific-market-commentary

Amundi Asia Pacific Market Monthly Commentary - February 2018

The MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index lost 4.98% (in USD terms, dividend included). Asia ex-Japan equities markets fell in February, posting the worst monthly performance since February 2016. The Index underperformed global equities and all country constituents ended up in negative territory except Thailand. The selloff was triggered by a sharp correction in the U.S., over concerns that the Federal Reserve might speed up its tightening pace. India, China and Korea were the key laggard while Thailand was the top performers.

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asia-pacific-market-commentary

Amundi Asia Pacific Market Monthly Commentary - January 2018

Asia ex-Japan equities rallied in January and marked the best monthly return since March 2016. The MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index grew 7.56% (in USD terms, dividend included) while the key drivers included positive earnings revisions, improving global growth and weak USD. Earnings revision ratios improved across most of countries, led by Hong Kong and China. Financials sector especially led the strong absolute performance of the region, and Amundi expects corporate de-leveraging and banks’ profits recovery to drive re-rating.

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asia-pacific-market-commentary

Amundi Asia Pacific Market Monthly Commentary - December 2017

Asia ex-Japan equities advanced in December, but the overall positive performance masked some variations across countries. The MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index grew 2.70% (in USD terms, dividend included) last month. Data released in the final months of 2017 pointed to a strong growth momentum in Asia’s economy into 2018, with robust export demand underpinning a likely acceleration in GDP growth through year-end. Global growth is expected to continue into the new year, especially in the developed economies where strong private consumption, rising capital expenditure and generally expansionary fiscal policies are key drivers. In this regard, exporters in Asia would be key beneficiaries. Official rhetoric so far suggested that fiscal policies in most Asian countries would be expansionary-bias as a region-wide improvement in the fiscal positions gives governments more leeway to pursue such a policy in the year ahead.

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Expert Talk

Mauro Ratto, Head of Emerging Markets

Expert Talk, 12 February 2018

Emerging Markets: Unlock next wave of returns

After years of buoyant market conditions that have driven strong market performance across the board, investors are questioning for how long this "Goldilocks" regime can last and which investment areas will continue to offer opportunities in the near future. In this respect, we believe that Emerging Market (EM) assets still offer potential return opportunities, especially when compared to Developed Market (DM) assets, as positive cyclical and structural dynamics are at play.

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A MORE CONFIDENT FED

Expert Talk, 5 February 2018

A MORE CONFIDENT FED

The Federal Open Market Committee left the funds rate target range unchanged after January meeting. We believe investors should position their portfolios to defend against rising interest rates, with underweight positions in U.S. Treasuries vs. the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, and hold overweight vs. the index in a diverse range of spread sectors.

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Paresh Upadhyaya_US Amundi Pioneer

Expert Talk, 10 November 2017

Trump’s Election: The First Year in Review

As we approach the one-year anniversary of Donald Trump’s election, it makes sense to review his original action plan and evaluate his progress against the market’s expectations. Amundi finds three potentially market impacting items on Trump’s agenda that are progressing: tax reform, trade deals and naming Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair. Passing tax reform could be Trump’s legacy defining moment early in his term.

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THE ECB GOES FURTHER THAN EXPECTED

Expert Talk, 30 October 2017

ECB: QE WILL NOT "SUDDENLY" STOP

The Europe Central Bank (ECB) announced that it will halve the value of its Quantitative Easing (QE) purchases in 2018 (from EUR 60 billion to 30 billion) starting from coming January to end of September 2018. While the market was expecting a larger reduction of asset purchases, ECB’s President Mario Draghi has indicated that the QE will not stop "suddenly" after first nine months. Amundi estimated that the Eurosystem would purchase more than EUR 270 billion (9 months at EUR 30 billion) in 2018.

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Mo JI, Chief Economist, Asia ex-Japan

Expert Talk, 29 September 2017

FAQ ON CHINA'S 19TH CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY CONGRESS

China's 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress (CCP) will be held on 18 October 2017. It is once every five year event with leadership reshuffle. While investors concern if there will be a significant change on the pace of reform before or after the meeting, Amundi believes that the reform will generally be sidelined which means no speed up or slowdown.

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Mo JI, Chief Economist, Asia ex-Japan

Expert Talk , 21 June 2017

INCLUSION OF A-SHARE IN MSCI

MSCI will include 222 Chinese A-share large cap stocks on a gradual basis beginning in June 2018. Given 5% inclusion factor, Chinese Ashare weighting in MSCI Emerging Market (EM) Index will be 0.73%. Amundi believes the move is symbolic with long term market impact and inflow.

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Tristan PERRIER, Developed Countries Economist

Expert Talk, 9 June 2017

A KEY STEP AHEAD OF BREXIT

While it’s not Amundi’s central scenario, a setback for the Conservatives could alter the conditions in which Brexit will unfold. Whatever happens, difficult negotiations are to be expected, as are temporary episodes of market stress over the prospect of an exit by the UK without an agreement with the EU.

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Philippe Ithurbide Fond Uni

Expert Talk, 8 May 2017

French Presidential Election - Macron President: risks disappear ... back to fundamentals

The second round of the presidential election provided the name of the winner: E. Macron is the next president of the French Republic (66% of the votes).

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2017-03-French election urn

Expert Talk, 24 April 2017

French Presidential Elections - the Aftermath of the First Round

The first round finally delivered its verdict: Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) arrived in the lead with 23.9% of the votes, ahead Marine Le Pen (Front National) with 21.4%.

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THE ECB GOES FURTHER THAN EXPECTED

Expert Talk, 12 March 2018

Investors should be ready for a new phase

The European Central Bank (ECB) council removed the easing bias on the Asset Purchase Programme, but President Draghi was dovish in commenting the change. At the global level, a new and more volatile phase is opening up, due to different speeds in Central Banks’ recalibration policies. To deal with this new phase, investors should adopt diversified strategies: Not only duration and credit, but also currencies. This will be, in our view, an important source of performance in this complex phase.

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