Market Views

Market Commentary

asia-pacific-market-commentary

Amundi Asia Pacific Market Monthly Commentary - July 2018

In July, the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index grew 0.84% (in USD terms, dividend included). Thailand was the best performing country across

the region, supported by strong economic indicators. On the other hand, China was the worst monthly performer as concerns over macro

economy deceleration, the Sino-American trade dispute and RMB depreciation hurt the market performance.

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asia-pacific-market-commentary

Amundi Asia Pacific Market Monthly Commentary - June 2018

In June, the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index lost 4.79% (in USD terms, dividend included) with all regions registered negative monthly return. In the midst of June, followed by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of putting a 25% tariff on up to USD 50 billion of Chinese goods, Chinese government also announced its retaliation measures: 25% tariff on US products which worth a total of USD 50 billion. Escalated trade friction between US and China weighted on Asia ex Japan markets’ performance. Among ASEAN countries, Thailand was the worst performer of the month due to increasing foreign investor outflows.

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asia-pacific-market-commentary

Amundi Asia Pacific Market Monthly Commentary - May 2018

The MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index lost 1.32% (in USD terms, dividend included) and Chinese equities outperform the region. In the midst of the month, China and U.S. have issued a joint statement on economic and trade consultations, vowing not to launch a trade war against each other and take effective measures to substantially decrease the current trade deficit between the two countries. Meanwhile, Malaysia was the worst performer of the month. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad scored a historic victory in the general election which also marked the downfall of the Barisan Nasional coalition. In knee-jerk fashion to the surprise result, the local equity market took a hit.

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Expert Talk

Protectionism intensifies

Expert Talk, 6 Jul 2018

After several months of hesitation, President Donald Trump finally decided to implement some of his protectionist threats, first against the EU, Canada and Mexico; then more recently, with China.

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THE ECB GOES FURTHER THAN EXPECTED

Expert Talk, 12 March 2018

Investors should be ready for a new phase

The European Central Bank (ECB) council removed the easing bias on the Asset Purchase Programme, but President Draghi was dovish in commenting the change. At the global level, a new and more volatile phase is opening up, due to different speeds in Central Banks’ recalibration policies. To deal with this new phase, investors should adopt diversified strategies: Not only duration and credit, but also currencies. This will be, in our view, an important source of performance in this complex phase.

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Mauro Ratto, Head of Emerging Markets

Expert Talk, 12 February 2018

Emerging Markets: Unlock next wave of returns

After years of buoyant market conditions that have driven strong market performance across the board, investors are questioning for how long this "Goldilocks" regime can last and which investment areas will continue to offer opportunities in the near future. In this respect, we believe that Emerging Market (EM) assets still offer potential return opportunities, especially when compared to Developed Market (DM) assets, as positive cyclical and structural dynamics are at play.

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A MORE CONFIDENT FED

Expert Talk, 5 February 2018

A MORE CONFIDENT FED

The Federal Open Market Committee left the funds rate target range unchanged after January meeting. We believe investors should position their portfolios to defend against rising interest rates, with underweight positions in U.S. Treasuries vs. the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, and hold overweight vs. the index in a diverse range of spread sectors.

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Paresh Upadhyaya_US Amundi Pioneer

Expert Talk, 10 November 2017

Trump’s Election: The First Year in Review

As we approach the one-year anniversary of Donald Trump’s election, it makes sense to review his original action plan and evaluate his progress against the market’s expectations. Amundi finds three potentially market impacting items on Trump’s agenda that are progressing: tax reform, trade deals and naming Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair. Passing tax reform could be Trump’s legacy defining moment early in his term.

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THE ECB GOES FURTHER THAN EXPECTED

Expert Talk, 30 October 2017

ECB: QE WILL NOT "SUDDENLY" STOP

The Europe Central Bank (ECB) announced that it will halve the value of its Quantitative Easing (QE) purchases in 2018 (from EUR 60 billion to 30 billion) starting from coming January to end of September 2018. While the market was expecting a larger reduction of asset purchases, ECB’s President Mario Draghi has indicated that the QE will not stop "suddenly" after first nine months. Amundi estimated that the Eurosystem would purchase more than EUR 270 billion (9 months at EUR 30 billion) in 2018.

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Mo JI, Chief Economist, Asia ex-Japan

Expert Talk, 29 September 2017

FAQ ON CHINA'S 19TH CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY CONGRESS

China's 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress (CCP) will be held on 18 October 2017. It is once every five year event with leadership reshuffle. While investors concern if there will be a significant change on the pace of reform before or after the meeting, Amundi believes that the reform will generally be sidelined which means no speed up or slowdown.

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Mo JI, Chief Economist, Asia ex-Japan

Expert Talk , 21 June 2017

INCLUSION OF A-SHARE IN MSCI

MSCI will include 222 Chinese A-share large cap stocks on a gradual basis beginning in June 2018. Given 5% inclusion factor, Chinese Ashare weighting in MSCI Emerging Market (EM) Index will be 0.73%. Amundi believes the move is symbolic with long term market impact and inflow.

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