Market Views

Market Commentary

asia-pacific-market-commentary

Amundi Asia Pacific Market Commentary - February 2017

Asia ex-Japan equities had another strong month. The MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index rallied 3.39% (in USD terms, dividend included) in February fuelled by ongoing expectations of a budding and synchronized global recovery. The Asia ex-Japan bloc is seeing strong export recovery, led by an improvement in technology orders. Higher Earning Per Share growth expectations along with Return On Equity improvements have been fueling the upside. Separately, firmer commodity prices have also been supportive of selected economies in the region with sizeable commodity export revenues. Donald Trump’s infrastructure spending plans, together with supply side reform initiatives in China, are driving the price increase in this space.

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asia-pacific-market-commentary

Amundi Asia Pacific Market Commentary - January 2017

Asia ex-Japan equities had a strong start to the year. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rallied 6.2 (in USD terms, dividend included ) in January, shrugging off fears of protectionism and trade wars. Cyclical stocks were the stronger performers, outperforming defensives over the month. China’s better-than-expected 4Q16 GDP growth reading of 6.8, coupled with the gradual easing of a mini liquidity squeeze that gripped its credit market earlier in December, added to the positive tone. On the corporate front, upbeat guidance from some of  Technology-related names in Korea, and Taiwan, explains in part the firm showing in these markets.

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asia-pacific-market-commentary

Amundi Asia Pacific Market Commentary - December 2016

The MSCI AC Asia ex Japan index declined 2.05% (in USD terms, dividend included) in December. Asia ex-Japan equities continued to slide in December, with ongoing fund outflows noted. US Federal Reserve (Fed) Fund rate hike and hawkish guidance for 2017 only added to the bearish tone. The outflows still occurred despite a backdrop of mildly improving data points in China’s economy. The country’s exports in November rose 4.4% MoM while monthly Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index were also on an uptick – gained 2.3% and 3.3% YoY respectively.

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Expert Talk

2017-03-French election urn

Expert talk, 9 March 2017

French Presidential Election French economy recovery: where are we?

This note is the second in a series that will accompany you until the results of the presidential and legislative elections (and probably a little further). Here we focus on an assessment of the French economy.

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2017-03-French election urn

Expert talk, 1st March 2017

French Presidential Election Taking stock of the situation and decrypting current issues

This note is the first in a series that will accompany you until the results of the presidential and legislative elections (and probably a little further). Here we set the scene before proposing specific thematic topics.

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Mo JI, Chief Economist, Asia ex-Japan

Expert talk, 10 February 2017

5 UNDER-ESTIMATED POSITIVE SURPRISES FROM CHINA

We have observed five positive surprises coming from China. Investors should not miss these signs as they are not yet priced in or very
much underestimated. Noteworthy, these signs included global commodity demand increase resulted by overcapacity reduction and further environment deterioration in China, along with private capex growth in China are much stronger than market expected with momentum.

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Tristan PERRIER, Developed Countries Economist

Expert Talk, 25 January 2017

Hard Brexit and soft power

After six months of calculated discretion, Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May went public with major indications regarding her government's strategy on Brexit and the United Kingdom's future economic relations with the EU. She warned Europeans against any desire to “punish the UK”, asserting no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain,” and that the UK could, in such a case, leverage its taxation and regulation levels to improve its competitiveness.

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Mo JI, Chief Economist, Asia ex-Japan

Expert talk, 20 December 2016

9 THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT CHINA IN 2017

We have reviewed several questions about China for 2017, and we think Chinese PPI, private investment will peak later than market expected and remain positive is more important than judging when it will peak; property investment will also peak later than market expected, and the drag on the overall economy is limited; Chinese monetary policy will not be tighter but rather much more aggressive in 2017. We believe the domestic Chinese equity market will recover in 2017.

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Italian Referendum

Expert Talk - 5 December 2016

Italian Referendum: The ‘No’ won : what to expect now?

On Sunday, the proposed reform of Italy’s constitution was rejected by a large majority of the population: 19.38 million electors (59.2%) voted No while 13.37 million (40.8%) voted Yes to reform the Senate. This is a very large victory for the “No Camp”. It is all the more true that the voter turnout was very significant by historical standards (68%). This result is a humiliation for PM Matteo Renzi who immediately announced that he will resign today.

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Pierre Gielen

Expert talk- 22 November 2016

An oasis in growth desert

In the world as we know it today, advanced economies in Europe and the US exhibit low potential economic growth, low investments from businesses, low demand from consumers and in some cases negative interest rates translating into reduced returns.

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US-elections

Expert talk- 09 November 2016

US Elections: D. Trump President … What’s next?

The elections have delivered their verdict, and against all odds, D. J. Trump (Republican) will be the 45th president of the United States. He will take office on 20th January 2017. His vice president will be Michael Richard Pence.

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US-elections

Expert talk- 04 October 2016

TRUMP vs CLINTON: Investment challenges and strategies

More important than the outcome of the presidential elections per se, attention should be paid to the new configuration of Congress: the economic impact of the elections will depend substantially on by which party it is controlled.

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Mo JI, Chief Economist, Asia ex-Japan

Expert Talk - 26 September 2016

RMB SDR INCLUSION FAQ.

On 1st of October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will include RMB into new SDR (Special Drawing Rights) basket.

As market participant, we should be vigilant around comments regarding the speed of RMB internationalization, as setbacks are more than market expected, and potential opportunities are overly exaggerated, which would greatly impact our potential positioning and business planning.

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Bastien Drut

Expert Talk - 14 September 2016

ECB: CHI VA PIANO, VA SANO

Contrary to what we expected, the Europe Central Bank (ECB) ultimately did not announce any time extension for its asset-buying programme (QE), which, for now, is supposed to wrap up in March 2017. On the other hand, the Governing Council has the relevant ECB committees to “evaluate the options that ensure a smooth implementation of our purchase programme”. This certainly would not have been the case if the ECB were not planning to extend its QE after March 2017, because it would have been possible to find a short-term solution.

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Didier Borowski

Expert Talk - 30 August 2016

US: not the prelude to a new cycle of expansion

US Growth slowed considerably in 2Q16 (+1.1% at annual rate; +1.2% YoY). Business inventories, which subtracted 1.3% from growth in 2Q16 (at annual rate), were the main reason for this poor showing, which led Amundi to lower US average annual growth forecast from 2% to 1.5% for 2016 (after 2.6% in 2015). For the fifth consecutive quarter, inventories made a negative contribution to growth, but this is the first time since 2011 that companies have reduced their inventories.

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