13/04/2024
Global Investment View
Global Investment Views - April 2024
Global Investment Views - February 2023
Thursday 09 February 2023
Global Investment View
Play market rotations, with a focus on China
Markets are shifting focus away from inflation towards growth, with a slightly less disruptive economic picture for Europe and a more optimistic view on China. This is creating strong rotations: outperformances for China and EM were the most visible trends, followed by the big reversal in the dollar’s strength.
Intra-market rotations also materialised, with cyclical stocks favoured over defensive names in Europe while in the US, expectations of a less aggressive Fed supported tech stocks.
Going forward, four themes should be crucial: (1) inflation/growth balance; (2) central bank (CB) actions; (3) dollar weakening; and (4) the corporate earnings trajectory. Any negative growth and earnings surprise could drive markets lower while there are no short-term triggers for upside at current valuation levels.
