Global Investment Views - August 2023

Tuesday 01 August 2023

Global Investment View

Receding inflation doesn’t mean the battle is won yet

The optimism on risk assets behaviour partly stems from most of the hiking cycle now being behind us and a better-than-previously-expected economic picture, mainly in the US. Here, we continue to expect a mild recession in 4Q23/1Q24, but we upgraded our 2023 growth forecast to 1.6% on the back of better Q1 growth revisions.

The Eurozone should avoid a recession, but risks related to ECB overtightening and growth divergences among countries persist. For China, we downgraded 2023 growth forecasts to 5.1% due to a weak Q2 and delayed stimulus.