2020 Investment Outlook: Stay agile amid diverging scenarios

Friday 13 December 2019

Expert Talk

2020 Investment Outlook: Stay agile amid diverging scenarios

What is Amundi's central scenario for 2020? 

After enjoying stellar performance this year, investors will increasingly question whether the global economy will proceed towards a trade war-engineered recession moving into 2020, thereby ending the longest ever bull market. Or, if growth stabilises at a low level, and potentially rebounds, the cycle could extend even further.

In Amundi’s view, the retreat in global trade is a major change to the structure of growth but will not lead to a full-blown recession, especially at a time when cumulative loose policies will gear up and a partial deal between US and China is in sight.

Video - Part 1 (only available in Chinese version)

What are the global key themes for 2020?

Monetary and fiscal combination, a theme that will become prominent next year and beyond, may extend the cycle further, and may as well strengthen the resilient domestic demand. While the noise on trade-related issues will be high, a material escalation, which could damage the US economy, is unlikely, given the upcoming US elections in 2020.

New themes will emerge in Emerging Markets from a more fragmented world and a retreat in global trade. Investors will have to go beyond the traditional “global” EM concept and dig deeper to capture attractive opportunities and themes. 

Video - Part 2 (only available in Chinese version)


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